The notion that the US Senate
under the current Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), will not take up a House impeachment referral for trial has been ballyhooed much — not only here at Daily Kos, but across the political spectrum — and especially when McConnell reminded everyone recently that he should be called by that nickname which he gave himself last year, “Grim Reaper”.
But McConnell himself has already been on the record as saying that if the House votes for impeachment and it comes to the Senate, they will take it up.
The very next idea in everyone’s brain, and out of everyone’s mouth is, “So they’ll ‘take it up’ and in Mitch McConnell’s Senate, it won’t pass. It takes 67 votes of “aye” and there are only 45 Democrats and 2 Independents (Bernie Sanders & Angus King), for a total of 47. It means that every Democrat & both Indy’s would have to vote ‘aye’ and so would 20 Republicans!
But is that correct? Let’s consider…
U.S. Constitution - Article 1, Section 3, Clause 6:
The Senate shall have the sole power to try all impeachments. When sitting for that purpose, they shall be on oath or affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no person shall be convicted without the concurrence of two thirds of the members present.
That sort of changes things.
Why? Trump is a cesspit of disgusting ideas, and he’s very likely going to be the anchor which takes down the careers of dozens (if not more) Republicans currently in the U.S. Congress in the General Election of 2020. Don’t kid yourself, the Republicans KNOW IT ALREADY, that’s why 3 Republican US Senators are retired/retiring and 19 Republican members of the US House. There is nothing more sure to winning election to Congress than to already be a sitting member up for re-election (94% of them win re-election). What could make 22 of them decide now was a great time to ‘exit, stage left’?
The stench of Donald J Trump and the stain it’s going to leave on the GOP for years to come.
Now, back to the Constitution and why I think it possible for the Senate to affirm a House impeachment of Donald J. Trump.
No Republican will want to vote ‘aye’ and face the ire of the Trump supporters in their GOP Base when it comes time to vote on Nov 3, 2020 — they don’t want to lose their own seat over failing to protect Trump from the Democrats, right?
What if they didn’t have to vote and still were able to allow Trump to be removed?
The answer is in the words they chose to craft the impeachment clauses…
And no person shall be convicted
without the concurrence of two thirds of the members PRESENT.
[emphasis added for clarity]
Most votes, where the Sgt at Arms sends out the Quorum Call, require that a minimum number of 51 Senators (a simple majority of the 100 members of the Senate) be present for any official Senate business on the Floor to proceed. But not the Senate impeachment vote, no quorum is required, thus no minimum numbers of Senators need be present.
What if 10 Republican Senators decided to not be present for that vote?
That would change the math to:
Republicans: 43 Democrats: 45 Independents: 243 + 45 + 2 = 90 x 2/3 = 60
So now we’d need only 13 Republicans to vote ‘aye”, instead of 20.
What if 20 Republicans choose not to be “present”?
R = 33 | D & I = 47
Total = 80 x 2/3 = 53
Which would require only 6 Republicans to vote “aye” to remove Trump.
Hell, if it meant they could all just pretend like that vote isn’t taking place, they could ALL just avoid it and let the Democrats run the whole thing themselves and NO Republican votes would be needed. Only that 2/3rds of the Senators present vote “aye”.
Now this is all supposition, but the fact is that elections in 2018 and now in 2019 are showing the Republican incumbents that sticking by Trump is a LOSING proposition for them (Matt Bevin, Kentucky). But if they take that “aye” vote, they might lose themselves next November.
The idea that they could merely step aside and allow the Democrats to show up and vote Trump out, nearly by themselves; that could give them the cover they would need to survive 2020 AND it would remove Trump from power, leaving them safe from his reprisals!
Now, if there were only some way to publicize this idea to the Republicans who are, I am certain sure, writhing and whimpering in their sleep lately over Trump and his dumbfuckery blowing down the house of cards they’ve all built over the past few decades; leaving them holding the bag for his bad acts.
Imagine if the TV talking heads were discussing THIS possibility this coming weekend, instead of trading smarmy barbs over the latest barb from Biden about Elizabeth Warren. Now, that might be some Must See TV.
It’s also something to consider on our side — after all, even if it did the Senate Republicans some good, it would help make possible a removal of a US President from Office, and that is something which has never been done before, and THIS TIME the guy has more than earned being drummed out of Office.