As Climate Change progresses, we can be sure to see more and more violent storm systems moving through the Atlantic Coastline each year.
The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions provides a brief on what those storm systems (mostly hurricanes in this regional coastline) will look like for the Atlantic seafront in coming years:
Warmer sea surface temperatures intensify tropical storm wind speeds, giving them the potential to deliver more damage if they make landfall. Over the 39-year period from 1979-2017, the number of major hurricanes has increased while the number of smaller hurricanes has decreased. Based on modeling, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts an increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, alongside increased hurricane wind speeds. Warmer sea temperatures also cause wetter hurricanes, with 10-15 percent more precipitation from storms projected. Recent storms such as Hurricane Harvey in 2017 (which dropped more than 60 inches in some locations), Florence in 2018 (with over 35 inches) and Imelda in 2019 (44 inches) demonstrate the devastating floods that can be triggered by these high-rain hurricanes.
Sea level rise is already making coastal storms more damaging and is expected to continue worsening. Globally, average sea level has risen over half a foot since 1900 and is expected to rise 1 to 2.5 feet during this century. Coastal regions will experience the worst of these effects. Sea level rise increases the risk of coastal flooding and has intensified the impact of several recent storms. A study of Hurricane Katrina estimated that higher sea levels led to flood elevations 15-60 percent higher than climate conditions in 1900. A study of Hurricane Sandy estimated that sea levels at the time increased the likely of flooding by three times and that additional rising will make severe flooding four times more likely in the future.
Changes in the atmosphere, like the warming of the Arctic, may be contributing to other trends seen in the hurricane record. Hurricanes today travel more slowly than they previously did. Though the mechanism that is causing this slowdown is still debated, it is clear that storms are “stalling” and subjecting coastal regions to higher total rainfall and longer periods of high winds and storm surge. This has increased the destruction caused by recent storms in the United States.
[emphasis added for clarity]
Before I continue, let me make clear I am not talking about specific damage from the most recent hurricane to hit the U.S. Atlantic coast in Florida (and Cuba and Puerto Rico) and possibly to a lesser degree in South Carolina (where it hit this morning).
I’m talking about a plan for the future of states with regular hurricane damage each year.
How much longer does it make sense to just be prepared to rebuild hundreds of billions of dollars worth of real estate each year, because of damage caused by hurricanes to homes, business and public works — instead of making a national plan to migrate the populations of these areas inland and out of the Hurricane Danger Zone.
Core Logic (a 5,000+ person real estate analysis and advisory company) has an estimate for Ian damage already:
Reconstruction cost value of all homes along the Florida Gulf Coast in the Sept. 26, 2022 cone of uncertainty totals nearly $258 billion (click the link and scroll down a bit to the spreadsheet data for damage to the various cities in this analysis) IRVINE, Calif., September 26, 2022—CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released data analysis showing 1,044,412 single-family and multifamily homes along the Florida Gulf Coast with a reconstruction cost value (RCV) of approximately $258.3 billion are at potential risk of storm surge damage from Hurricane Ian. These figures assume Hurricane Ian makes landfall as a Category 4 hurricane and are based on the Sept. 26, 2022 National Hurricane Center 11 a.m. E.T. forecast.
“Hurricane Ian has all the ingredients you need for a bad storm surge event,” said Dr. Tom Jeffery, senior hazard scientist, CoreLogic. “Due to Hurricane Ian’s slower speed and rapid intensification in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the threat of a widening wind field bringing damaging storm surge increases each day. Many homes along Florida’s western coast are at risk of storm surge inundation regardless of where the storm makes landfall, and even more homeowners will contend with heavy rainfall and hurricane-force winds throughout midweek.”
That’s a lot of money to rebuild homes and businesses in an area where they are going to be subject to another hurricane, it’s not a question of if, but only one of WHEN.
Is any member of Congress or the president considering publicly gathering a Commission to start making the plans our nation will absolutely need to begin planning for over the coming decades?
I can’t find anything on this issue.
How far inland will we have to migrate cities?
Will the federal government cover the cost of these migrations? Will that fall to the State government? What about getting ready to build the necessary infrastructure that will have to be constructed before anyone can be moved?
This is going to be a huge undertaking — but it surely seems like the time has come to start talking about it, because those storms are just going to continue to keep coming, doing more and more damage and killing more people, so long as we just decide to suffer the losses and “rebuild” after.
Year after year after year.